The spread of COVID-19 in stock returns along global value chains

This paper examines the performance of industries in the trade network in international stock markets during the onset of COVID-19. In general, the value of all industries in G20 countries declines significantly in the pandemic. Stock returns of industries in the central positions of global value chains exhibit remarkable resilience despite the economic hardship caused by COVID-19. This pattern is more pronounced when the disruptions caused by social distancing requirements are considered. We postulate that this is related to the essential services provided by the central industries.

Ways to promote intra-regional trade and investment in Central Asia to boost the green recovery

The economic recession caused by the restrictions on the spread of the Coronavirus disrupted the economic life of many countries. The primary purpose of the paper is to measure the impacts of intra-regional trade and investment on the green recovery of five Central Asian economies over 2010–2021 through employing annual data and the panel co-integration approach. The results confirmed that the degree of green trade openness positively and significantly affects the green recovery. The estimated coefficient of direct foreign investment is negative. The patent coefficient is not statistically significant, and the official exchange rate has a positive effect. Financial development has a positive and significant coefficient. The paper has several policy implications, such as enhancing green FDI (Foreign Direct Investment), supporting green innovation, and promoting green trade liberalism for scholars and policymakers. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.

Can tourism development and economic growth mutually reinforce in small countries? Evidence from Singapore

This study investigates the causal relationships between international tourism development and the economic growth of a global city-state - Singapore - drilling into the temporal details of the tourism-economy nexus in small countries. Many studies have examined whether the tourism-led growth hypothesis or the economy driven-tourism growth hypothesis holds in large developed and emerging countries. Still, relatively few studies examine small countries' tourism-economy nexus, and the temporal details of the nexus have not been adequately examined. We examine the tourism-economy nexus in Singapore using quarterly data from 1991Q1 to 2020Q4 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model, with the long- and short-run dynamics and the feedback loop of the nexus considered. Our statistical findings show that international tourism development leads economic growth by two quarters in Singapore. Also, there are both 'consistent' and 'contemporaneous' positive feedback loops between tourism development and economic growth, but those loops cannot last for more than a quarter. From the economic perspective, our study reveals that improving tourism activities may accelerate the post-Covid economic recovery of some small countries that rely on tourism. Yet, continuous input is required to sustain the tourism-economy synergy.

Editorial: Post-COVID-19 global trade and business environment and maritime supply chain

Since January 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread impacts on virtually every sector of the global economy, including world trade and global supply chains. [...]it has been argued that the existing globalised economies might require to be restructured in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic when governments and firms start to re-strategize their critical supply chains through various disruption and resilience management strategies. [...]other shipping intermediaries, i.e. freight forwarders and logistics service providers, who play crucial roles in connecting demand and supply of maritime supply chains also suffered due to reduced business transactions. [...]the focus of this special issue is on understanding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on various players in the maritime supply chain, as well as possible trends of global trade and maritime supply chains and strategies and policies in the aftermath of the pandemic.

Can Domestic Food Production Provide Future Urban Populations with Food and Nutrition Security?—Insights from Bangladesh, Kenya and Uganda

Population growth and urbanization increasingly put pressure on our planet's availability of areas needed for food production. The dependencies on domestically produced food are increasingly judged favourable, following the consequences of the Ukrainian war, with escalating fuel and grain prices and less accessibilities to low-income groups. It is, however, unclear whether land is domestically available. Applying a food system approach, the main aim of this article is to investigate spatial foodsheds and theoretical self-sufficiency for food production needed to supply increasing future populations in a selection of cities, including estimates for Dhaka in Bangladesh, Nairobi in Kenya and Kampala in Uganda. The projected foodshed scenario areas for the years 2020 and 2050 are estimated for the production of three core products currently extensively produced and consumed in the three countries. They show that it is not possible to feed an ever-increasing urban population based on domestic production alone. International trade, new technological developments and new consumer demands for less area-intensive food production systems may give solutions to the immense challenge of feeding the world's population with nutritious food in 2050. However, to ensure fair and inclusive transition pathways for low-income groups: (1) affordability and accessibility of trade opportunities, technologies and products, (2) a common vision aiming for the SDGs, including SDG2: Zero hunger and SDG11: Sustainable Cities and Communities as well as (3) best practices in co-creation and cooperation with the most vulnerable urban and rural populations, are highly needed.

Track-and-Trace Progress Benefits Supply-Chain Security Efforts

COVID-19 vaccines, approved under emergency use authorization, were not required to meet serialization requirements, but they have been properly labelled to meet US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requirements, he says, complete with 2D barcodes with GTIN, lot, and expiry date. The company decided to serialize its Diprovan anesthetic, a workhorse generic product, using radio frequency identification tags containing the four identifiers (2). "If an agent is handling your product on your behalf, they need to leverage GS1 Standards including GTINs for products [and] global location numbers (GLNs) for physical locations, and share data electronically using electronic product code information services (EPCIS) to capture events from manufacturing to serialization [and] capping to shipping.

China: export opportunities for food

The People's Republic of China has the largest population in the world, making it both one of the most fascinating and rapidly expanding import markets for food and beverages as well as one of the most difficult. The Chinese market is appealing to foreign food producers because of the country's high per capita income and quick urbanization. The Agriculture Chapter addressed fundamental trade barriers and will support a significant increase in the export of food, agricultural, and seafood products from the United States, boosting farm and fishery revenue, stimulating rural economies, and fostering employment growth. Numerous non-tariff barriers to the export of U.S. agricultural and seafood products are discussed, including those relating to rice, dairy, infant formula, horticulture products, animal feed and feed additives, pet food, and agricultural biotechnology products, as well as meat, chicken, and seafood. The U.S. has achieved significant export successes thus far, despite the pandemic. Decrees 248 and 249, which take effect on January 1, 2022, mandate that foreign suppliers of particular food products to China register with the GACC before presenting their goods for customs clearance. Several Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) reports on GACC Decrees 248 and 249 have been published by FAS offices in China. For the most recent information on whether their business has to register, whether it can self-register, or if it needs to be recommended for registration by a U.S. competent body, U.S. exporters should examine the GAIN system, which offers points of contact at the GACC. According to Euromonitor, urban Chinese customers who are short on time choose shopping near residential areas, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak. During the crisis, consumers grew accustomed to shopping in their immediate areas. As a result, many major modern grocery chains have used a multi-format strategy and constructed smaller-format stores. Freshippo, Yonghui, and Carrefour are all opening smaller, more neighborhood-focused stores that place an increased emphasis on fresh foods. Some of these shops also act as e-commerce order warehouses and offer prompt home deliveries. Particularly Yonghui has opened Yonghui Mini Stores quickly as an addition to its hypermarket and major supermarket operations. The food processing sector in China has been expanding steadily in recent years. According to the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), sales, production, and income in the sector rose in 2020. The total profits of China's largest food processing firms reached 620.66 billion yuan (about US$97 billion) in 2020, an increase of 6.8% over the same period in 2019. According to MIIT, these businesses' profit growth was 3.1% higher than the average for all industrial sectors.

Post-pandemic intention to participate in the tourism and hospitality (T&H) events: an integrated investigation through the lens of the theory of planned behavior and perception of Covid-19

PurposeThis paper aims to predict the post-pandemic intention of Indian consumers to participate in tourism and hospitality T&H events by incorporating the perception of Covid-19 (PCOV) into the theory of planned behavior (TPB). It also examines the relationship among attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, behavioral intention and PCOV.Design/methodology/approachThis research employed a quantitative research technique, with data collected using an online questionnaire-based survey from August 23 to October 29, 2021. The sampling approach is convenient, and the sample of this study is comprised of individuals who follow events pages on social networking sites.FindingsThe findings of SEM revealed that the proposed model has better explanatory and predictive power. The path analysis showed that all the variables of the TPB are significantly and positively associated with the post-pandemic intention to participate in the T&H events. However, the PCOV is negatively associated with the post-pandemic intention.Research limitations/implicationsThe results of this study give an idea about the post-pandemic intention of Indian consumers to participate in T&H events. The results of this study revealed important practical implications for event management organizations, travel agencies that deal in events, the T&H industry, tourism planners and other stakeholders, as these findings may be used to develop effective marketing strategies.Originality/valueThere has been a lot of research on TPB in the context of coronavirus, but to the best of the authors' knowledge, there is a gap in the literature regarding the intention to participate in T&H events. Hence, this research fills that gap.

The influence of consumer traits on impulsive buying: A study on Tokopedia users during the Covid-19 Pandemic

The e-commerce industry significantly expanded during a negative economic recession. This is because, during the COVID-19 epidemic, many countries enacted social limitations that caused various economic activities to diminish in many sectors and resulted in layoffs in various businesses because there was no production activity. Through consumer attributes such as impulsive buying tendencies, shopping enjoyment preferences, moods, and personal situations, this study aims to understand the factors contributing to impulsive buying. The SEM statistical method and PLS software were used to test the research model empirically. Sampling with a purpose was chosen. Two hundred legitimate respondents were used as samples to test the assumptions. First, the study found that impulsive buying patterns, moods, and situations all positively influence impulsive purchases. Second, other elements, such spending patterns, are not significant. This demonstrates that customers can enjoy looking up information about the desired goods, but it hasn't yet led customers to make impulsive purchases at online shops.

Ethical moments and institutional expertise in UK Government COVID-19 pandemic policy responses: where, when and how is ethical advice sought?

Background:The emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic has required a rapid acceleration of policy decision making, and raised a wide range of ethical issues worldwide, ranging from vaccine prioritisation, welfare and public health ‘trade-offs', inequalities in policy impacts, and the legitimacy of scientific expertise.Aims and objectives:This paper explores the legacy of the pandemic for future science-advice-policy relationships by investigating how the UK government's engagement with ethical advice is organised institutionally. We provide an analysis of some key ethical moments in the UK Government response to the pandemic, and institutions and national frameworks which exist to provide ethical advice on policy strategies.Methods:We draw on literature review, documentary analysis of scientific advisory group reports, and a stakeholder workshop with government ethics advisors and researchers in England.Findings:We identify how particular types of ethical advice and expertise are sought to support decision making. Contrary to a prominent assumption in the extensive literature on ‘governing by expertise', ethical decisions in times of crisis are highly contingent.Discussion and conclusions:The paper raises an important set of questions for how best to equip policymakers to navigate decisions about values in situations characterised by knowledge deficits, complexity and uncertainty. We conclude that a clearer pathway is needed between advisory institutions and decision makers to ensure ethically-informed debate.

DYNAMICS OF GVC POSITION OF V4 AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIERS: IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC POLICY

In the post-covid world, governments explore options to enhance their policies so that corporations can act as successful motors of recovery and sustainable growth. Countries select various objectives related to global value chains (GVC), such as participation, value capture, inclusiveness and resilience, yet might be unaware of the position of corporations they are supposed to motivate. In this paper, we aim to (re-)investigate the position of Visegrad Four (V4) suppliers within the regional automotive value chains and to compare results with suppliers in other EU member states using the trade in value added (TiVA) statistics. We set two research questions: How does the position of V4 in automotive GVCs differ from the positions of other EU member states and significant other automotive-producing countries? What is the link between the domestic value added in gross exports of final automotive products and the selected policy variables? A multiple linear regression model is run with TiVA in the automotive industry as the dependent variable and independent variables embodying proxies of GVC-oriented policy consequences. The analysis identifies significant differences in value-added levels between V4 countries and other EU countries, and other large automotive-producing economies. Labour costs, productivity, investment in R&D and innovation support are among the factors where V4 countries fall behind. Implications for Central European audience: The results of our research might be helpful for respective authorities and governments in V4 and other Central and Eastern European countries. They can be of use when setting goals and implementing policies targeted at promoting innovation, upgrading within existing GVCs and in cooperation between universities and research centres on the one hand and the automotive industry on the other. © 2023, Central European Business Review. All Rights Reserved.

Working capital and firm performance: role of COVID-19 disruption

PurposeThis study examines the performance effect of working capital for a large sample of Indian manufacturing firms in light of supply chain disruption, i.e. the COVID-19 pandemic.Design/methodology/approachThis study is based on secondary data collected from the Prowess database on Indian manufacturing firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) 500. Panel data regression analyses are used to estimate all models. Moreover, this study has employed robust standard errors to consider for heteroscedasticity concerns.FindingsThe results challenge the current notion of working capital investment and reveal that higher working capital has a positive and significant impact on firm performance. Further, it highlights that Indian manufacturing firms suffered financially post-COVID-19 as they significantly lack the working capital to run day-to-day operations.Originality/valueThis research contributes to the scant literature by examining the association between working capital financing and firm performance in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, representing typical developing economies like India.

Manufacturing Innovation

(ProQuest: ... denotes non-USASCII text omitted.) The annual Global Innovation Index released in September 2021 ranked China twelfth, surpassing developed economies such as Japan, Israel, and Canada and raising fears in the United States amidst sluggish growth in North America and strong growth in the Asia Pacific region.1 Interestingly, the United States government responded by boycotting the Beijing Olympic Games, citing human rights abuses as the main reason.2 A tech war between China and the United States brewed beneath the diplomatic rancor over the attendance at the Olympic Games. Part I documents how the United States has assisted China's tech and intellectual property domination through President Nixon's historic visit to China, giving China Most Favorite Nation (MFN) status and ascending China to the World Trade Organization (WTO). [...]under Deng Xiaoping's leadership during the reform period, China rapidly developed its special economic zones (SEZs), laying the foundation for subsequent tech innovation and production. [...]broadcasting, telecommunications, office machines, computers, integrated circuits, and cell phones are among China's notable exports to the world.9 China dominates in commodities and raw materials, exporting refined petroleum, cotton, plywood, and tea.10 For agricultural products, China occupies the perch as the world's largest producer. Shenzhen rose as the largest among the four.18 Shenzhen, a small fishing locale in the southern part of China's southern province, Guangdong, served as the pioneer of Deng Xiaoping's embrace of economic reforms.19 A market-oriented economy took root in Shenzhen, allowing foreign companies and entities from Hong Kong and Macau to operate and allowing Chinese talents the freedom to leave their hometowns and move into the SEZs.20 Cheap labor proved to be another significant factor facilitating China's rise as a global manufacturer.21 In the 1980s, multinational corporations from Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, as well as domestic Chinese companies, opened their factories in the SEZs and other cities in China to take advantage of the cheap and plentiful labor force.22 Indeed, when Deng Xiaoping began his pilot SEZs, China's young workers who wished to lift themselves out of poverty descended into the economic zones in search of better opportunities.23 Shenzhen grew from a population of 59,000 in 1980 to a population of 12,357,000 in 2020.24 The new migrants became the workers, participants, and stakeholders in the global manufacturing frontier.25 Because of the abundance of cheap labor, manufacturers in China have no difficulty keeping production prices low and pleasing consumers and businesses worldwide.26 China's currency manipulation is another factor propelling China to its domination in global manufacturing.27 The United States Congress attempted numerous times to introduce legislation to combat China's currency manipulation.28 China artificially devalued its currency through government control of the exchange rate and refused to let the Chinese Renminbi (RMB) float.29 Despite strong criticisms from the United States, China refuses to allow its currency to freely float.30 China's currency manipulations, according to critics, caused the widening of trade deficits between the United States and China.31 China's currency manipulation allows products to be manufactured at lower prices, hampering competitors and thereafter replacing them.32 In order to cope with China's currency practices, United States manufacturers facing their own existential crises must decide to either outsource jobs overseas or face large risks, including financial ruin.33 The United States lost millions of manufacturing jobs due to massive job outsourcing as the trade deficits between the United States and China continued to persist.34 Geopolitically, in shaping post-Cold-War powers, the United States decided to assist China in its transformation from a poverty-stricken country to a global manufacturer.

COVID-19 impacts on United States crawfish. (Special Issue: COVID-19 impacts on selected commodities.)

This research determines the impacts of COVID-19 US on crawfish production and consumption for 2020 and 2021 using an Equilibrium Displacement Model. In the US, crawfish is one of the seafood commodities where most production is consumed by domestic consumers (7% of domestic consumption is from imports). Crawfish and rice are complementary. Therefore, the impacts of COVID-19 on crawfish consumption simultaneously influence rice production and crawfish producers and consumers. In the first year of COVID-19 (2020), the reduction in crawfish retail demand caused negative effects on final consumers and producers. However, crawfish consumption recovered significantly in the second year (2021), which could compensate for the loss in 2020. Overall, consumer and producer gains ranged from $549 to $626 million if the COVID-19 pandemic only impacted retail consumption. However, in 2021, the increase in production costs due to higher oil/diesel prices and other input prices caused the farm supply to decrease. As a result, total welfare gains ranged from $200 to $228 million. If the demand in 2021 did not increase, but the crawfish farm supply decreased, consumer and producer losses ranged from $929 to $1045 million. Overall, the total effects of COVID-19 on consumers and producers for 2020 and 2021 depend on its effects in 2021. If the demand in 2021 increased following the decrease in farm supply, consumers and producers would benefit from the shocks of COVID-19 due to higher post-COVID-19 demand.

Effects of Economic Liberalization on Poverty and Inequality in India – A Case Study of Pre-COVID-19 Period

The purpose of this research is to study the effects of neoclassical trade liberalization policies enacted in India in 1991 to determine the effect on levels of poverty and income inequality. This research predicts that poverty and economic inequality will be reduced due to implementation of economic liberalization policies. The research uses empirical data from the National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO), in India and develops a regression model to determine the effects of economic liberalization on income inequality and absolute poverty. The results of the regression model suggest that income inequality and poverty decreased during the year liberalization policies were enacted, but is not statistically proven with enough confidence that liberalization is strongly correlated with a reduction in inequality and poverty. There is a weak statistical correlation that suggests inequality increased in the Indian urban sector, and decreased in the rural sector due to liberalization. In conjunction with a literature review where more robust data and econometric models are applied, the empirical analysis by complimented with the fact that in general income inequality decreased due to economic liberalization policies alone, holding all exogenous factors that affect income inequality constant. The literature review also confirms that poverty levels decreased with economic liberalization, holding all other exogenous factors that affect poverty constant. The implication of this research is that liberalization polices have been successful for overall development in India, and suggests that implementation of liberalization policies may be desirable in nations under similar circumstances as India in the era before its liberalization. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.

Machine Learning and Deep Learning based Stock Market Prediction considering Covid-19 as a Feature

India's capital markets are witnessing intense uncertainty due to global market failures. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, risk asset prices have plummeted sharply. Risk assets declined half or more compared to the losses in 2008 and 2009. The high volatility is likely to continue in the short term;as a result, the Indian markets have declined sharply. In this paper, we have used different algorithms such as Gated Recurrent Unit, Long Short-Term Memory, Support Vector Regressor, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Lasso Regression, Ridge Regression, Bayesian Ridge Regression, Gradient Boost, and Stochastic Gradient Descent Algorithm to predict financial markets based on historical data available along with economic and financial features during this pandemic. According to our findings, deep learning models can accurately estimate financial indexes by utilizing non-linear transaction data. We found that the Gated Recurrent Unit performs better than the existing model. © 2023 IEEE.

Adapting Regulations Post-Brexit

The UK government is taking advantage of the new regulatory flexibility, afforded by Brexit, to boost the country's competitiveness in pharma On 1 Jan. 2021, the United Kingdom formally left the European Union to become a third country and no longer a member of the Union's single market and customs union. The UK has, for example, decided to draw up its own version of the EU chemicals legislation-called REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorization, and Restriction of Chemicals)-which sets technical standards for chemical ingredients for medicines (1). Because the UK is a separate legal entity-a third country-the UK's excipient producers and their raw material suppliers have started to be concerned about procedures like customs declarations and rules of origin. [...]by 18 Feb. 2021 the UK had vaccinated 26% of its population versus 8% in Denmark-the leading EU country for vaccines availability-6% in Germany, and 5% in France (6). NICE needs to change Industry believes that the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), the government's health technology assessment (HTA) body, is being too restrictive with its evaluation of digitalization products, which ultimately sets the price paid by the government for them (9).

Aid, Trade and Development: The Future of Globalization, Second Edition

This volume presents a broad sweep of modern economic history underpinning aid, trade, development and globalization in the last half century and the salient challenges facing the global community today. The author draws on his long years as an academic and development practitioner to recommend what needs to be done to cope with the backsliding of the fight against global poverty, fractured geopolitics and the threats to the multilateral economic order. The new, revised edition analyses how unilateralism, rising protectionism and the Covid-19 pandemic seriously threaten global sustainable development. It concludes with recommendations on the policy changes needed to make globalization more equitable and development more sustainable. This book will be of interest to researchers and students of economic development and economic history, as well as all those concerned about global inequality and sustainability. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.

Areas within the United States at the Highest Risk for African Swine Fever, Classical Swine Fever, and Foot-and-Mouth Disease Introduction

Domestic livestock production is a major component of the agricultural sector, contributing to food security and human health and nutrition and serving as the economic livelihood for millions worldwide. The impact of disease on global systems and processes cannot be understated, as illustrated by the effects of the COVID-19 global pandemic through economic and social system shocks and food system disruptions. This study outlines a method to identify the most likely sites of introduction into the United States for three of the most concerning foreign animal diseases: African swine fever (ASF), classical swine fever (CSF), and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). We first created an index measuring the amount of potentially contaminated meat products entering the regions of interest using the most recently available Agricultural Quarantine Inspection Monitoring (AQIM) air passenger inspection dataset, the AQIM USPS/foreign mail, and the targeted USPS/foreign mail interception datasets. The risk of introduction of a given virus was then estimated using this index, as well as the density of operations of the livestock species and the likelihood of infected material contaminating the local herds. Using the most recently available version of the datasets, the most likely places of introduction for ASF and CSF were identified to be in central Florida, while FMD was estimated to have been most likely introduced to swine in western California and to cattle in northeastern Texas. The method illustrated in this study is important as it may provide insights on risk and can be used to guide surveillance activities and optimize the use of limited resources to combat the establishment of these diseases in the U.S.

The impact of price insulation on world wheat markets during COVID-19 and the Ukraine crisis

This paper begins with a survey of recent commodity price developments that highlights the magnitude of this price surge and identifies the rapid rise in wheat prices as a key element. The analysis in this paper focuses on the extent to which domestic markets are insulated from these changes and on the resulting impacts on world prices. An econometric analysis using Error Correction Models finds stable long-term relationships between world wheat prices and most domestic prices of wheat and wheat products, but with considerable variation across countries in the rate of price transmission. A case study of the price shocks during the Covid pandemic and the Ukraine food price crisis finds that price insulation roughly doubled the overall increase in world wheat prices and raised their volatility both during periods of price increase and price decline.